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Championship Weekend Preview and Predictions

By Murphy Butler, 05/28/17, 9:30AM EDT

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An In-Depth Preview of This Weekend's Games with Predictions

All you need to know for this weekend's games.

We are just a few days away from the best weekend of the year for lacrosse fans, and as the teams get ready to fight to be crowned National Champions; we prepared a rundown of this weekend's action to get every fan ready for exactly what they're going to see.

Countdown to Championship Weekend

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Semifinal #1: Ohio State vs. Towson

This game pits a relative up-and-comer against a team that hasn't made championship weekend in 16 years; a team that signals the growth of the game against a blue blood looking to return to glory. Ohio State vs. Towson, for an appearance in the National Championship. Read that again slowly to make sure it sinks in- one of these two teams will be playing for a National Championship. If anyone had said this at the start of the season they would've been called crazy, but here we are after the most tumultuous and parity-filled season in recent memory.


Ohio State

The keys to this game for Ohio State are continued offensive efficiency, and the success of Jake Withers on Face-Offs. Against Duke, the Buckeyes shot an incredible 48% on the game- that is simply out of this world. If they continue to shoot like that, there is little doubt that the Buckeyes will be playing again on Memorial Day. With regard to Withers, it took him winning 11-of-13 the first time these two teams played each other for Ohio State to scrape out a 6-3 win, so look for this game to be a lot more highly contested than people anticipate. Fans hoping to see the Scarlet and Grey on Monday should be comforted by the elevated play of Tre Leclaire and Eric Fannell as the season has gone on, as both players combined for two goals in their first meeting with Towson.


By The Numbers

Goals Per Game 12
Goals Allowed Per Game 8
Leading Scorer Tre Leclaire (46g,14a) and Eric Fannell (33g,27a)
Face-off Win % 63.1
Save % 54.7

Towson

Towson is a much different team than anyone else remaining in the tournament, as they play a very hard-nosed, typically low-scoring style of game. Led by a goalie who is playing his best lacrosse in the postseason and a defensive group (particularly in the midfield) that can match just about any other unit in the country, this Tiger team is a pleasant throwback that is much more reminiscent of the style of play from the last time Towson played in Championship Weekend (2001) compared to the run-and-gun offenses we see now. The keys for Towson this weekend are the play of Matt Hoy in the net, and the ability for the defensive midfield to dominate their matchups and cause turnovers.


By The Numbers

Goals Per Game 10
Goals Allowed Per Game 7
Leading Scorer Ryan Drenner (27g, 28a)
Face-off Win % 58.7
Save % 53.6

@towson_mlax's Joe Seider destroys the top corner

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Prediction

This game is hard to pick, when you look at the role that Winter Storm Stella played the first time these teams met this year, and given the mixed bag of results against common opponents. Against Denver, Towson played to a 12-11 loss, while Ohio State won 16-7. Then against Johns Hopkins, Towson won 13-8, while Ohio State had wins of 13-9 and 15-13. Finally, Towson subdued Penn State 12-8 in the opening round of the NCAA tournament, while Ohio State lost their regular season matchup with the Nittany Lions by a score of 9-4. 

With all that said, I think this game is a race to 10 goals. If the score is kept under 10 a piece, then I think Towson has the edge. But if Ohio State hits double digits, which I expect them to, then I don't think Towson can keep up. So I think Ohio State advances, beating Towson 11-8. 

Semifinal #2: Denver vs. Maryland

In what could best be described as a cruel twist of fate, this game pits a blue-blood program that hasn't won a National Championship since 1975 against the first school West of the Mississippi to win a National Championship- which happened just two years ago, against this same opponent. A heavyweight matchup featuring two Tewaaraton Trophy finalists, this game is sure to leave fans wanting more.


Denver

Denver's recipe for success this season has been simple: don't let the other team have the ball, and with Trevor Baptiste winning more than 70% of his face-offs this season that has been easy to stick with. Having a plethora of scoring threats doesn't hurt their chances to win either. However, Denver's chances this weekend aren't reliant on either of those. Instead, Denver must count on Alex Ready and the defense to get enough stops against a very potent and efficient Maryland offense.


By The Numbers

Goals Per Game 14
Goals Allowed Per Game 9
Leading Scorer Ethan Walker (38g,32a)
Face-off Win % 73.3
Save % 48.4


Maryland

For all the hype that other teams have received throughout the year, Maryland seems to be the only program in the country to not get caught reading their own headlines. They consistently meant business, and it showed as they just wore down and overpowered their opponents with a multitude of different looks both offensively and defensively; much like Ivan Drago in Rocky IV. With the well-known one-two punch of Matt Rambo and Colin Heacock, and the prolific production of Connor Kelly in the midfield; this Maryland team is tough to beat, because they will capitalize on every mistake you make. The key for Maryland this weekend is their face-off unit, and if they can find some level of success against Trevor Baptiste. Whether they are using Austin Henningsen or Jon Garino, one or both of them must be able to keep Trevor Baptiste in check. The pressure is also on Isaiah Davis-Allen and the rest of the wing players for Maryland, because no one beats Trevor Baptiste alone.


By The Numbers

Goals Per Game 13
Goals Allowed Per Game 9
Leading Scorer Matt Rambo (40g,42a)
Face-off Win % 49.8%
Save % 54.5%


Prediction

To me, this game is much easier to pick than the other semifinal. As long as Maryland finds some level of success on face-offs, then I don't think that Matt Rambo and company will be denied. They will make their way to their third straight championship game; defeating Denver by a score of 13-11.

Championship Game: Maryland vs. Ohio State

Here it is, for all the marbles. These teams are exceedingly familiar with each other; having split the two games they've played this season, both with only a goal separating the two sides. Fannell and Leclaire vs. Rambo and Heacock. This final should be just as exciting as the first two meetings, but with even less love lost between these two sides.

If Ohio State is going to win this game, Jake Withers must be successful at the X once again and they have to find some supplemental firepower to the Fannell and Leclaire show. 

For Maryland to be successful, it must be a complete team effort offensively. Everyone knows about Matt Rambo and Colin Heacock at this point in the year, so I think the difference maker will be the player on this roster with the most to prove- Connor Kelly.


Prediction

Maryland wins this one, with an extra goal cushion compared to their previous meetings this year; final score 12-10.




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